The Divine curve of Allflame, hour by hour

Every price site shows you what a Divine Orb costs now. This is what it cost every hour of Allflame, from the league’s first traded hour to the day this was written — 515 of them.

The shape is not the interesting part. What the hours say about each other is.

The curve

Day	Close (chaos)	Volume
24 Jul	27	1,828
25 Jul	93.5	1.8M
26 Jul	116.5	5.5M
27 Jul	122.5	8.3M
28 Jul	131	11.4M
29 Jul	184.5	12.0M
31 Jul	173.5	16.1M
3 Aug	199	16.6M
5 Aug	209	9.5M
6 Aug	228	19.5M
9 Aug	210.5	18.6M
10 Aug	187.5	16.4M
12 Aug	196	6.4M
15 Aug	196	17.6M

The peak was 259.5, at 21:00 UTC on 6 August, on 23 million chaos of volume. The lowest hour anyone could actually trade in was 35.5, early on 25 July.

The first day is a different game

The league’s very first traded hour quotes 22 chaos — on a volume of 1,828. That number is real and it is also nearly meaningless: it is a handful of people agreeing on something before a market exists.

Twenty-four hours later the price is 93.5 and the volume is 1.8 million. That is the actual story of a league start — not that the Divine “went up four times”, but that a price with nothing behind it was replaced by a price with a market behind it.

This is why the volume column exists on every page here. A number without it is half a sentence.

The plateau nobody talks about

From 29 July to 4 August — six days, the middle of the league’s busiest stretch — the Divine moved between 173.5 and 199. Call it 15% of drift over a week, on volumes of 16 million or more.

League-start posts and end-of-league retrospectives both skip this part, because nothing happens in it. But it is where most people actually play, and it is the answer to the only question most people have: is it worth holding? For six days, on this league, it was not.

The peak, and what followed

6 August is the high: 228 at close, 259.5 at its best hour. Then nine days of slow decline to 196, where it has been sitting since 11 August almost without moving — 196, 196, 193, 191.5, 196.

A curve that rises for two weeks and then flattens is the ordinary shape of a league, and knowing that is worth more than any single number on it.

The part where our own data was wrong

While pulling these hours, roughly one in sixteen turned out to be unusable — 33 of 515 — and the reason is worth a paragraph, because it changed the site.

The exchange reports the lowest and the highest quote of each hour. The price shown here used to be the midpoint between them. That is right almost always: over two days of this market the two quotes sat 6% apart.

Then there are hours like 17:00 on 10 August, when the book held a quote of 1 chaos per Divine next to the real market at 204. Halfway between an absurd order and a real one is 102.5 — and that is what the chart drew. A halving, and back, in two hours, on the most liquid market in the game.

It happened to about one hour in ten on this market and one in five on Orb of Alchemy. It is fixed now: an hour whose own two quotes disagree beyond three times and which lands far from the hours around it is answered with whichever of its own quotes sits nearer its neighbours — a price somebody actually offered, never an average. The numbers in this post are the repaired ones.

We could have quietly fixed it and published the chart. Six months of honest hourly data is the only thing this site has that nobody else does, and it is worth less than nothing if the first data post is the one that hid a bug.

What to take from this

• The first day of a league is not data. Wait for volume before believing a price.
• The middle of a league is flat. Most of the movement happens in the first week and around the peak.
• A percentage without a volume is half a sentence — on any site, including this one.

The full hourly history is on the Divine Orb page, and every other currency has the same.